Wie wird sich die Oder unter verschiedenen Bedingungen entwickeln? Forschende modellieren drei mögliche Szenarien. © Astrid Scheuermann
In addition to the purely ecological aspects, the environmental disaster in the Oder River also affects the dimensions of water engineering and management, social ecology and economy. The current status and the further development of relevant aspects of these dimensions are being analysed in subproject 13 "Development scenarios". The central approach is the recording of ecosystem services, i. e. the services that nature provides for the benefit of humans. For example, the effects of the disaster on tourism, which is important in Germany’s border region with Poland, in particular cycling, fishing and nature tourism, as well as the natural retention and decomposition of nutrients in surface waters and floodplains are being analysed. These provisioning, regulatory or cultural benefits of nature are recorded in non-monetary terms, i.e. without assigning a monetary value, in order to be able to map the entire spectrum from agriculture to flood retention and habitat quality to recreational value on a standardised platform.
To compare the impacts of different management options, three development scenarios for the Oder River and its floodplains are considered: a continuation of the status quo, a more natural development and a less natural development. For the near-natural scenario, it is assumed that the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) are fully implemented. The less natural scenario assumes, among other things, groyne construction, river deepening and intensification of agriculture in the catchment area. For each scenario, the impacts on the key parameters of water level dynamics, nutrient inputs and retention as well as the resulting water quality and non-monetary ecosystem services and value creation (through fisheries and tourism) are determined.
The comparative scenario descriptions and results will be synthesised together with the results of the other subprojects, which can serve as a reliable knowledge base for discussions on the management of the Oder and as a decision-making aid for politics and business.
